PHOENIX—After Team USA’s stupefying 8-6 loss to Italy in the World Baseball Classic, experts say their path to the next round now requires victory, a precise knowledge of advanced baseball mathematics, and the unlikely intervention of the Olive Garden. The result stunned fans and statisticians alike, as Italy only recently learned baseball is not a form of competitive bocce.

Analysts at the MLB Network broke down Team USA’s chances with the help of a 14-foot chalkboard, a protractor, and sheer optimism. “Basically, if Mexico beats Italy but not by too much, and also if Venezuela forgets what the infield fly rule is, we’re in,” said Assistant Coach Tom ‘Chili’ Henderson. “Or maybe we need to buy more garlic bread. At this point it’s hard to say.”

Star outfielder Mike Trout, interviewed while nervously eating his glove, remained confident. “We’re still mathematically alive. And who among us hasn’t lost to Italy once, especially when they’re powered by a pregame meal of carbonara?” he said. “I just ask fans to keep the faith and their calculators handy.”

Commissioner Rob Manfred attempted to clarify the tiebreaker scenario: “If three teams tie, we go to run differential. If that’s even, we check who has the best mustache. If that’s tied, we settle the group on Mario Kart.”

Meanwhile, Italy’s team captain, Luigi Parmigiano, credited his team’s success to “our pitching, solid defense, and the fact Americans think we only play soccer.”

Team USA’s fate will be known Wednesday—unless the whole thing is decided by a dramatic late-night lasagna bake-off, which many experts agree is increasingly likely.